New Energy Vehicles to Surpass Fuel Vehicles in China by Q2 2025

China's Passenger Car Market Sees 12% Growth in December 2024

According to the latest statistics released by the China Passenger Car Association, the national passenger car market reached retail sales of 2.635 million units in December 2024, demonstrating a 12% year-on-year increase. The total annual retail sales for 2024 were 22.89 million units, witnessing an increase of 5.5% compared to 2023.

New Energy Vehicle Sales and Penetration

In December 2024, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.3 million units. Despite the domestic retail penetration rate falling from 52.3% in November to 49.4% in December, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles in 2024 stillreached an impressive 41%, fully 35.5 percentage points higher than the broader market.

Future Outlook for New Energy Vehicles

Will the sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 surpass those of fuel vehicles? According to Mr. Cui, the secretary general of the Federation, this is the trend of the times and is expected to be achieved in the second quarter of 2025. With the continuation of the "Two-New" subsidies and the effectiveness of relevant policies in 2024, the domestic car market retail is projected to reach 23.4 million units in 2025, a growth rate of 2%. Of this, new energy passenger car retail is expected to reach 13.3 million units, an increase of 20%, with a penetration rate of 57%.

Export Performance and Projections

In contrast to the domestic market environment, China's cumulative export of passenger vehicles in 2024 was 4.8 million units, an increase of 25%. The export of new energy vehicles performed well, reaching a total of 1.29 million units throughout the year, an increase of 24.3%. Entering 2025, China's passenger car export growth rate is expected to remain at 10%, with the total export of pure electric models projected to be the same as in 2024.

Growth in Developing Markets

Despite the increasingly complex external environment, car companies can remain optimistic as their own brand of plug-in models in developing countries is expected to experience rapid growth in 2025. This growth is anticipated to contribute significantly to the overall export performance of China's automotive industry.